Chapter 5. Campaigning for the Nomination -- Major Questions

Why has the importance of the Iowa caucuses decreased in recent years?  

•  “frontloading” -- too close to other primaries that are more important

• “Venus fly-trap” for candidates

• Yet can derail frontrunner -- Barack Obama in 2008

Who “won” the NH primary by coming in second? (Expectations!)

• Bill Clinton in 1992:  he had been frontrunner, but was struggling after charges of marital infidelities and draft-dodging; he faced senator from neighboring state, Paul Tsongas; won news spin game by self-label as "comeback kid"

• Almost worked for Edwards in 2004, but news of his surprise 2nd place finish did not get covered because of the "Dean scream."

When is money most important in primary campaigns?

•      Early, b/c of frontloading

•      buys recognition, legitimacy, flexibility

•      only danger is if you run out of $ later -- Bob Dole in ‘96

In addition to money, you also need organization--people. What are two sources of organization?

•      Personal followers, like McGovern and Carter and Robertson and Obama

•      state party organizations, like Dole and George W.  and McCain (in 08, but not 00) used in South Carolina

•      money alone cannot buy enthusiastic volunteers, e.g. Forbes, Romney

Who was the first candidate to successfully use polling to win primaries? 

•      JFK in West Va in 1960

•      learned that HHH was weak and could be beat there

What are 3 other uses of polls?

•      Test effectiveness of ads, e.g. Dick Morris

•      get out the vote -- “GOTV”

•      negative advertising -- “push polls”

•      raise money

•      influence campaign coverage

•      Note: impact of the “Heisenberg uncertainty principle” -- measuring can change results

How have candidates learned to bypass the national news reporters?

• Use videotapes given to local tv stations

• satellite interviews with local tv

• talk radio

• interview shows on tv like Larry King

• entertainment shows like SNL

• web sites and viral email

Who designed the classic non-front runner strategy and why does it no longer work very well?

•      Jimmy Carter in 1976 (actually Hamilton Jordan)

•      frontloading -- no longer have time to turn “big mo” into money and organization -- e.g. Huckabee in 08

What is a “pulpit” candidate and give an example?

•      Runs to promote ideas, influence policy of winnner, build personal organization

•      Robertson, Buchanan, Keyes, Mike Gravel (national sales tax plan), Ron Paul (libertarian agenda)

What are the goals of frontrunners in the primaries?

•      Win delegates as fast as possible with help of State party leaders

•      quickly knock out challengers not giving them any momentum

•      dry up all available money and organizational support to deprive them of resources

•      remain upbeat in early losses -- e.g. HR Clinton's "inevitability" strategy in 08

What did john McCain learn from his failed 2000 campaign that he successfully changed in the 2008 campaign?

• do not alienate religious right

• need support from Republican Party leaders in each state and party regulars--cannot win with independents alone, so he rebuilt bridges to party starting by supporting Pres Bush

• raise own money and do not use federal matching funds

• follow professional advice to limit press access and go negative when necessary