Chapter 7. Campaign Organization, Strategy, and Tactics
I. History of
Campaigning
A. Early Tradition
B. Gradual Growth
-rallies—first
by
-organized campaigns by 1840s
-candidate speeches--William Henry Harrison
first in 1840 – 23 made in home state, but this was the exception
Stephen Douglas made
speeches in 1860, but
-front porch campaigning
– started by
-campaign trips – started in 1896 by
William Jennings Bryan, followed by TR as McKinley’s VP in 1900,
-radio--Harding in 1920--first dirty trick (FDR)
-whistlestop
train tour—campaign train -- FDR
in 1932
-personal attack in speeches--HST--the peril of
ignoring
-tv--Ike spends $2m in
1952
-prototype tv speech--Checkers
speech in 1952
C. Impact of technology--candidate-centered individualized campaigns
-physical appearance over speaking
skills
-style and personal message over issues position
-pseudo-events over mass rallies
-all recent winners except accidental presidents (Ford, LBJ) have been tv competent
-electronic media
replaces party as link to voters
-constant mikes
and cameras produce highly scripted events with planned messages and no
spontaneous comments
-computers and
information data bases allow “micro-targeting”
of individuals—no longer have to work thru groups
II. Organization
A. Specialized tasks w/experts – chair and manager and strategists
(like Karl Rove), and includes schedulers, press relations, issue research
(like Condi Rice for W. Bush), opposition research, ad design and media buyers,
pollsters, direct mail, finance (raising and spending), internet communications
and technology, targeted outreach experts, legal staff (compliance with the law),
coordination with party, regional staff tied in to grassroots organizers,
speech writers, interest group liaisons, advance people
B. Democrats tend
to have looser organization, more decentralized (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama
were exceptions); Republicans more centralized with tighter control.
C. Problem--meshing w/party organization
-CREEP -- a disaster in 1972 -- may have saved the GOP
-Bush 41 in '88 (good) and '92 (poor)
-
-Bust 43 well coordinated
-Turnovers in staff (Gore 2000 and Kerry 2004) suggest problems
III. Strategy
A. Definition of strategy: an overall broad plan on how to win
that involves a number of choices on appeals, image, and planning a winning
coalition of states.
B. Specific parts
1. Basic appeal
a. Party Image (or “branding”)--play up or down—depends
on partisan balance and “valence” issues (which party can better handle ___)
b. issue positions
-economic--generally helps D's—why 2008
should be no contest
-R's effective use of "wedge issues"--tax and spend to
help undeserving welfare recipients--other wedges usually social issues (AA,
busing, prayer in schools, big govt, gun control, gay
marriage)
-"New Democrat"--
-Gore’s populism less successful
-foreign policy--generally helps R's--end of
Cold War, terrorism, but problems in
-”retrospective voting”—are
voters in the mood for change or the status quo
-what issues you
stress depends on whether you plan to win on turnout of base or winning
independents and undecideds and “persuadables”
– depends on size of each group – persuadables
have been under 10% of the total the last several elections, so Bush decided to
expand turnout of base in 2004, and did so very well.
2. Leadership Image
a. Basic Formula--stress own strengths and opponent's weaknesses
b. Qualities: strength, assertiveness, decisiveness, dominance, optimism,
empathy, experience, wisdom, candor, integrity, trust
c. Lee Atwater--you win by not losing --he with
higher negatives loses
-going negative – not new – early is
best
-problem--public reaction –
decreases turnout
-"rapid response team" used by
d. cycles-new P's usually
contrast with earlier ones weaknesses
3. Incumbency advantage?
a. no longer an advantage
b. recent record
-1900-72: 11 of 13 won
-1976-now: 3 of 6 lost
c. Balance sheet
-Advantages: incumbents look presidential, nothing succeeds like success,
experience, symbolic ceremonial functions, free media, make
things happen, hard for former vp’s b/c they
were followers rather than leaders
-Disadvantages: media criticism, anti-DC and anti-politician attitudes,
high expectations against performance, policy failures, duties can distract
from campaign
4. Geographical Electoral Coalition – red and
blue states
-how much to spend where – planning centers on states where your
party’s candidate was + or – 6% initially – usually most
spent in battleground states in
Midwest – Ohio was ground zero in
2004 – 2008? Several! Monitor using tracking polls and reallocate
resources throughout the campaign
-problem or possibilities created by third party candidates
-establish your base: R advantage (South + Rocky Mtn),
D base (Two Coasts)
-narrow opponent's base
·
96 was 92 de ja vu--Dole had to win all of
·
2000 – Rep’s won Gore’s home state plus W Va, so only needed 2 of the 5 battleground states
(Oh,
·
2004 – won more of the battleground states
·
2008 – Obama attacking edges of the Republican base, including
IV. Tactics
Definition of tactics: specific day-to-day actions to achieve
broader strategy--must be flexible
Covers a range of activities:
A. Communication techniques
-door-to-door
-phone banks
-direct mail (now mostly replaced
by computer email and blogs)
-mass media--tv now
2/3's of budget, radio and cable tv more targeted
B. Orchestration
-advance work--critical -- Dole disasters in '92
-crowd control at
events—use of Secret Service by Bush in 2004—“free speech zones”
-stay on script -- the danger of ad libs—Reagan and W. Bush 43: masters at staying on
script
C. Targeting Messages
-coordinate themes with groups
-poll to see where to spend--
D. Timing--especially important for underdog
-shore up base
-broaden appeal
-raise negatives of opponent
-go positive at end -- hopes, vision – if you do not get to this, you are in
trouble!
V. Turnout
A. Critical in close election, important in all elections
B. Registration Drives—depends on resources—advantage Obama
in 2008 b/c of extensive primary organization and volunteers
C. GOTV – get out the
vote – identify/register/vote (Note 7 “bubble” days on Ohio
that allow registration and early voting in one step in early October; Liberty
University student registration and voting in Va.—nearly 10,000 McCain
votes)
D. the dark side – voter suppression – voter challenges,
letters warning voters of legal consequences of improper voting
E. “Fortuna” – weather: 1 inch of rain = -1% in turnout
F. High generally helps Dem's